Experts at Blueshift, the advanced thermal protection systems (TPS) business for spacecraft and other mission-critical industries, are warning that design must evolve to address the growing risk of space debris, as launch activity accelerates and increasing numbers of payloads are placed into orbit.
Blueshift’s analysis highlights a sharp rise in activity, with the number of payloads launched into orbit by the United States now more than 50 times higher than ten years ago.
As payload volumes rise at unprecedented rates, Blueshift is urging manufacturers and operators to place greater emphasis on how spacecraft are designed to behave at end-of-life.
The company says that improving how spacecraft break up and burn during atmospheric re-entry can help limit the build-up of hazardous debris in orbit and reduce the risk of surviving fragments reaching the ground.
Some satellite operators recognise this need and adapt accordingly. AST SpaceMobile, for example, says its spacecraft are designed for up to 10 years of operation before deorbiting within five years of retirement through controlled manoeuvres and atmospheric drag, with no debris left behind. After recently encountering deployment issues with its BlueBird 7 satellite, the company said it would actively deorbit the spacecraft rather than leave a failed asset in orbit.
Tim Burbey, President and Co-Founder of Blueshift, explains that re-entry represents one of the most demanding phases of a spacecraft’s lifecycle:
“When defunct satellites or rocket components re-enter the atmosphere, they are exposed to extreme heating and drag forces as they travel at hypersonic speeds. In many cases, this causes structures to break apart and burn up before reaching the ground. However, depending on a combination of physical and engineering factors, some components can survive the descent.
“If launch rates rise without design evolution, more vehicles will survive re-entry in part, meaning tanks, thruster components, dense brackets, battery assemblies, and other high-melting-point or high-ballistic-coefficient parts may reach the ground. That increases cumulative casualty risk and makes compliance harder at fleet scale.”
According to Blueshift, material composition plays an important role in how spacecraft components respond during atmospheric re-entry. Dense, high-temperature metals such as titanium are valued for their durability and reliability in orbit, but that same resilience can allow some components to better withstand the intense heat of descent. By contrast, lighter composite materials may fragment and ablate more readily under similar heating conditions.
The company emphasizes that survivability is shaped by multiple interacting factors. Shape influences drag and heat exposure, mass affects how quickly an object decelerates, and the angle of descent governs how intense and sustained the heating becomes. Together, these aerodynamic and material properties determine whether debris fully burns up or leaves surviving fragments.
“No single factor determines whether debris survives re-entry,” Tim adds. “But for future spacecraft to survive launch and space operations, and to fall harmlessly during re-entry, this means choosing materials, geometries, wall thicknesses, joining methods, coatings, and component placement with re-entry breakup and heating in mind; isolating or redesigning ‘stubborn-to-demise hardware; and adding controlled re-entry capability where demise alone is not enough.
“Even when satellites fail at the launch stage, the response should be immediate, as AST SpaceMobile recently showed in their deorbiting practice. After a few years the winners and losers among those launching rockets and satellites will become more apparent, and focus shift towards end of life. For now, the main focus is just trying to get to space and survive.”
As launch rates accelerate and large satellite constellations expand, Blueshift is encouraging manufacturers and operators to adopt a more holistic approach to spacecraft design. This includes evaluating how thermal protection, structural configuration and material selection together influence how components fragment and burn up during descent.
For more information on Blueshift Materials research into the space debris and re-entry, visit the report at: https://www.blueshiftmaterials.com/the-biggest-sources-of-space-junk-falling-to-earth-and-still-in-orbit/